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  • 1 Seasonal Climate Outlook over soudano sahelian region of Africa valid for June July August
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  • 2 Seasonal Climate Outlook over soudano sahelian region of Africa valid for July August September
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  • 3 Seasonal Climate Outlook over soudano sahelian region of Africa valid for June July August
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  • 4 Seasonal Climate Outlook over soudano sahelian region of Africa valid for July August September
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PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

Given these SST anomalies, sub-surface temperature patterns and trends, knowledge and understanding of seasonal climate variability over the Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa, and available long range forecasts products, the following outlooks are provided for June-July-August (JJA) and July-August-September (JAS) 2014 seasons in the region (see figures 1 and 2 below):

  • Below average precipitation is very likely over Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, The Gambia and parts of Mali and Mauritania from June to September 2014;

  • Below to near average precipitation is very likely along the coast from Ghana to southwestern Nigeria for July-August-September 2014;

  • Near to below average rainfall is expected over central and parts of eastern Sahel in Mali, much of Burkina Faso, southern Niger and northern Nigeria from June to September 2014;

  • Near to below average rainfall is very likely from June to August 2014 along the coasts from Cote d‚ÄôIvoire to southwestern Nigeria;

  • Near average precipitation is very likely for the remaining part of the region;

  • Irregular distribution of precipitation during the season is very likely with dry spells, abnormal onset and cessation particularly over areas expecting below average precipitation.

  • Precipitation amounts for 2014 are expected to be lower compared to 2013 with important reduction over much of the Western part of the region;

ADVICES

Over Western Parts of the region and other locations where below average precipitation is very likely the following advices are provided for stakeholders:

  • prioritize low land areas for planting;

  • use water conservation techniques;

  • Choose crop varieties resistant to rainfall deficits;

  • Plan for irrigation to manage possible rainfall deficits;

  • Plan an early start of transhumance;

  • prepare or rehabilitate water points for animals;

  • Increase vigilance from the end of the year 2014 to cope with possible reduction of pasture and water for animals in early 2015;

  • prepare for possible deficits in the water in reservoirs;

  • prepare for emergency assistance in case of crop failure;

  • Increase vigilance for conflicts between farmers and pastoralists.