Above normal Temperature is very likely over much of North Africa. Precipitation is more likely to be quite close to normal with slight deficits over coastal parts of Morocco and adjacent areas in Algeria and slight excess over coastal parts of African countries of the eastern Mediterranean region.

La Nina dissipated in April 2012 followed by ENSO-neutral conditions from May to June 2012. From July to September 2012, Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) have been warmer than average to be close to an El Nino situation. Most dynamical models predict a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Nino by then end of 2012. A weak to moderate El Nino is expected during Northern Hemisphere winter of 2012/2013;
SST anomalies of 1°C above average off the Atlantic coast of Morocco, Spain and Portugal were recorded in June, July and August 2012. However, SSTs over the entire tropical north Eastern Atlantic have been mostly near average. Analysis of historical data, statistical and dynamical models outputs indicate near average conditions over tropical north Atlantic from September to December 2012. However, the warmer than average SST pattern over parts of tropical Eastern north Atlantic observed during the past few months is expected to persist. This pattern has been related to warmer than average near surface temperature over much of continental North Africa;